MBS Day Ahead: Fed Announcement: March Madness Edition

Today's only key event will be the Fed Announcement , which is actually 3 events in 1. At 2pm, we'll get the policy announcement itself as well as the Fed's updated economic projections (aka, the "dots"). Then at 2pm, Jerome Powell begins the post-announcement press conference. If the statement itself is light on details surrounding the Fed's balance sheet runoff plans, look for more details in the press conference. To reiterate the crux of our Fed-related discussions in recent weeks, today's big variable is the status of the balance sheet runoff . Ending the runoff is functionally equivalent to the Fed beginning a new bond buying program. After saying the runoff was on auto pilot with no reason to change in December, Powell and the Fed quickly came to the point...(read more)

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