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I am in Chicago with the FHLBank Chicago, and, despite the congestion and energy on the streets, the numbers tell us that the local economy is slowing. (In local news, for his work on batteries, University of Chicago alum John Goodenough – try growing up with that one - became the oldest Nobel Prize winner at 97!) Traditionally, U.S. downturns have been homegrown and household-led, sparked by spikes in interest rates and Wall Street run amok, but that’s arguably not the case this time. Instead, what’s driving recessionary fears in investors, and if we keep talking about it, it will happen, is a global, geopolitical shock to business sentiment from President Donald Trump’s trade war on China and Britain’s potential pullout from the European Union. That’s why...(read more)

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