MBS Day Ahead: Strong Trend Intact After Fed Day

In the day just past, bonds were primarily concerned with reacting to the Fed announcement, press conference, and updated economic projections. Even though the Fed's median rate forecast for the end of 2019 remained unchanged, the average dropped from 2.49% to 2.17%. There were also a few verbiage changes in the announcement that paved the way for the Fed to cut rates in July if the economic reports justifies it. In the day ahead, bonds will attempt to add another day to the range breakout that began on Tuesday. Combined with yesterday's gains, the breakout suggests the trend channel highlighted in the chart below (yellow lines). Even if that trend channel doesn't last long, it would still be a victory if rates can merely treat 2.06% as a ceiling in the coming weeks. Economic data...(read more)

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